Executive Summary
When it comes to the potential for sustainable base stocks to gain a significant market share in the industry, readers have mixed opinions. Efforts to reduce carbon footprint and new regulation will likely drive demand, but resistance to change and the potential for increased costs may limit the increase. Readers report the characteristics most important to developing improved base stocks include reduced costs, performance improvements and sustainability benefits, among others.

Q.1. In light of global legislation changes on fossil carbon/CO₂ reduction, what movement do you see regarding the development of sustainable base stocks for lubricants and metalworking fluids?

We have not seen much movement regarding sustainable base stocks, despite us being located in California. It comes down to price, and the market will need to push producers/consumers in the direction of sustainable base stocks in order to get manufacturers to switch. 
 
We are seeing a substantial increase in the interest of our customers in using re-refined base stocks to reduce product carbon footprint of formulated lubricants. Additionally, more people are requesting product carbon footprint data on products as a basic property.
 
I don’t see a lot changing for a while. We have had vegetable and sugar-based base stocks already; we know their limitations regardless of what the manufacturer says they are—they have their drawbacks.

Movement toward biodegradable/biobased lubricants.

Higher quality base stocks (polyalphaolefins [PAOs], esters) used as base stocks to drive CO₂ reduction in the automotive industry.

I believe the biolubricants might play an important role.

Very little movement at all. There will be significant pushback against going “green.”

Increased use of synthetics.

Whether it’s operations relocating or expanding, the majority of effort seems to be outside Europe due to the difficult energy prices and emission regulations. However, there will be a moment where the severity of regulations will increase in the U.S. to the point where aggressive changes will have to be made. Companies with a European location could have a leg up on understanding the technologies and transition processes that they can apply to other locations.

Some of the manufacturers are providing products that can contribute to environmental thread by use of plant extracts base stock. But these products are for demonstration purpose or marketing purpose, and so far I have not seen that there are successful sales with these products.

Increase of usage in vegetable oils like soybean, canola, etc. There are a lot of interesting synthetic base stock options, but they tend to be prohibitive on price.

A dramatic decline in demand for industrial lubricants used in electric vehicle production. Also associated decline in demand for historic drivetrain lubricants.

There are more offerings of biobased fluids for base stocks. Other base stocks, such as synthetics and even Group III, are being promoted for longer life and energy savings. Some base stocks such as mineral oils and PAOs can be reclaimed.

Continuing to produce hydrocarbons and base oils while reducing carbon footprints through carbon capture and utilization technologies.

Oil manufacturers now propose base stocks from recycled oils (cooking oils, use motors oil, etc.).

In terms of sustainable base stocks, “sustainable” has a lot of definitions and not necessarily carbon or CO₂ reductions; i.e., gas-to-liquid (GTL) using stranded natural gas, this is sustainable, but some people just want to leave the gas in the ground. No one is using biomass for the Fischer Tropsch refinery method to make truly sustainable Group III(s). There is not enough capacity for using vegetable oils (about 400,000 metric tons annually) for making biobased estolides for lubrication purposes. These truly biobased oils and greases will be specialty lubricants focused on sensitive environmental or food-grade uses.

Do you think sustainable base stocks will gain a significant market share increase globally in the next five years?
Yes 57%
No 43%
Based on an informal poll sent to 15,000 TLT readers.

It is a positive development for sustainable base stocks, and there are some promising technology strides in the pipeline; however due to the higher costs and specifically the inability for most sustainable base stocks to scale, the application areas will remain specialized and fundamentally better suited for new OEMs and infrastructure coming into play in the near future.

Improvement of deficiencies in base oils from renewable sources.

Our customers are still very individualistic on this, some are concerned about it and others aren’t.

Movement toward synthetic base stocks and away from mineral oil based base stocks.

More re-refined. 

Irreversible but hampered by insufficient industrial investment.

People will talk wanting sustainable base stocks, but they will cost more, and people will not actually want to pay for sustainable base stocks.

Lots of changes and many for the better! Good opportunities.

A relatively small increase of the market share of sustainable products in the lubricants and metalworking fluids category. I perceive lubricants and metalworking fluids to be a small part of the global crude oil demand. I’m confident we can’t grow enough oil to put a dent in crude oil demand.

Increased role of PAO therein.

Conventional Group I and II base oils will be non-existent, with Group III base oils as the starting point.

More use of bio-derived base oils in Europe. More use of Group IV and V in the U.S.

The first step is to improve the quality and consistency of re-refined base oil (RRBO)—this is the easiest, most important first move. Then we can think about the next moves like decarbonizing some processes, new raw materials, etc.

Biobased base stocks.

Re-refined and biobased base oils are in the lead.

The economics of crude-derived base stocks, which are about 1% of the crude barrel, is overwhelmingly driven by liquid fuel production, which is about 85% of the crude barrel. As decarbonization lowers the demand for liquid fuels, the cost of producing crude-derived base stocks will increase, as base stocks will need to bear more of the burden. That will help make sustainable base stocks more economically attractive, as well as more environmentally attractive.



We are working to improve the carbon footprint of products by offering products using sustainable base stocks. I hope to see more of an offering in this area for future requirements. They will need to have good performance and also can’t be too expensive.

Avoid stocks degradation.

Biodegradable base stocks.

Biggest and perhaps most movement underway is the move toward using RRBOs. Being able to give used lubricants a second, third or longer life as a RRBO will have some big impacts on reducing CO₂ impacts and improving sustainability.

A range of strategies and methodologies, including green building rating systems, sustainable materials and renewable energy, smart building management systems, carbon capture and storage, life cycle assessments and greenhouse protocols.

Re-refining, biobased oils (palm oil, etc.).

More use of manmade synthetic stock.

We are seeing an increase of requests for products blended with biosynthetic base oils.

Very little movement. What we have are working fine; why is there a need for change?

Biodegradable base stock.

A gradual change by blending in sustainable base stocks.

RRBO as the waste oil reuse method will be used gradually. API Group III and IV base oil for its longer service life will expand the application in low emission, high efficiency equipment and sector.

More increase in Group II base oil production.

I don’t expect any major movement in the development of sustainable base stocks in the near future, since the generation of carbon/CO₂ from the modern base oils (Group II/III hydrocarbon base stocks, PAOs and other synthetics) is quite insignificant.

Acceptable transition to bio/vegetable base stocks and further efficiencies in synthetics.

Sourcing manufacturing of base stocks in a sustainable, renewable manner.

Vegetable-based products are the main push.

Reduction for CO₂ will decrease for the cases of biodegradable lubricants. This also forms the basis of pollution standards.

The ecofriendly lubricants are making a big impact in the new generation lubricants, and the lubricants companies are working in CO₂ neutrality strategies.

I see a growing demand for RRBOs and improved product quality from these suppliers.

We are interested in availability of sustainable base stocks to improve our carbon footprint and help our customers achieve their targets.

How is heat generated? Does furfural refining require heat? Is distillation actually necessary (probably is)?

1.) Biobased and renewable feedstocks. 2.) Synthetic and GTL technology. 3.) Re-refined base stock.

It is important to consider the recycling possibilities of the next generation sustainable base stocks.

Vegetable oils for the development of base stocks.

Q.2. If you think of your current base stocks, which current issues would you want to solve with the next generation of base stocks?

Enhanced additive compatibility, better deposit/varnish control.

Oxidation stability, solvency characteristics, availability.

Economy of scale for RRBOs and global use/promotion in additive packages.

I would like to see oil arriving to my facility with an ISO cleanliness closer to my specs.

There is going to need to be a balance to be accepted by the market when it comes to properties versus cost. Green base stocks and biodegradable qualifications will be coming at a premium due to the extra efforts required in manufacturing.

Microbial resistance and stability.

Current base stock issues will have to be defined by the government before our brightest talent will be able to respond. And they will respond as their talent will be utilized depending on funding supplied by tax dollars.

Ease in recycling used products.

The cost of the new base stocks, particularly biobased, needs to be reduced to gain customer acceptance.

Continue to incrementally improve the quality of our base oils and reduce our carbon footprint.

Oxidation stability.

Primary issues will remain with accessibility and commercial competitiveness.

Biodegradability.

We need base stocks that maintain higher applied viscosities when diluted, with refrigerants, for example.

Improved stability.

Cost.

Availability and competitiveness.

Synthetic base stocks will continue to increase in usage, so oil will last longer. Group I will continue to fade. It’s evolution, not revolution with the next generation.

Talking about sustainability, which ingredients are in the lead?
Base oils/base stocks 58%
Additives                 25%
Polymers                 20%
Biomolecules         29%
Based on an informal poll sent to 15,000 TLT readers. Total exceeds 100% because respondents were allowed to choose more than one answer.

Some manufacturers, but still drill for oil. 

Providing higher viscosity index (VI) for them, additives lowering coefficient of friction (CoF).

More shear stability.

Volatility of Group III and III+.

In general, applicable to base stock and additives: toxicity followed by biodegradation.

More carbon neutral.



The current focus for sustainable base stocks is at the lower viscosity grades, which can be used in passenger car and heavy-duty truck lubricants. I would like to see more heavy base stock grades—12 mm²/s and higher for use in marine, railroad, gas engine and industrial lubricants.

Contamination.

Biodegradable.
 
Ensure the right balance of various base stocks, which enable lower viscosity. So, while base stock supply overall is good, higher value Group III may run short, but that can be slowed or eliminated by maximizing Group II plus into SAE 0W oils. Reducing the cost differential between conventional and sustainable stocks would also go a long way.

1.) Cost/performance acceptable to the OEMs/customers. 2.) Meet customers’ sustainability initiatives.

Increased base oil performance in long life tests. Being able to reduce or eliminate additives in your formulation will go a long way toward improving performance and reducing costs.



Taxes.

Increased resistance to oxidation side effects, improved VI values, absence of sulfur.

The cost differential between Group II and Group III versus the biosynthetic base oils usually makes product cost blended with the latter not feasible. Maybe increasing the use of more full synthetic base stocks.
 
Biodegradability.
 
The compatibility of the next generation base stocks with equipment components, such as the seals, inorganic material, through the component design or the formulation modification.

Biodegradability.

Better oxidation stability, longer life in use as engine oils, better antiwear properties.

Base stocks requiring lesser additives.

Enhancements in oxidation stability for viscosity stability and viscosity modified base stocks.

More pure base stocks. Better production. Group III and higher only.

Longevity.

Ozone layer depletion, greenhouse effect and in broader sense net carbon content zero.

Longer lifetime, lower friction without breaking the bank.

Better low flow properties.

Reducing the amount of hazardous waste generated.

Improved oxidation stability. 

Cost of synthetic and sustainable options. The end formulations need to be competitive in cost to be adopted.

Remove tars, gums and heavy components. Is low temperature extraction for dewaxing only?

Energy efficiency. Longer lifetime. Product carbon footprint, 

1.) Carbon footprint and sustainability. 2.) Performance under extreme conditions. 3.) Oxidation stability and oil life. 4.) Compatibility with additives and equipment. 5.) VI and temperature performance.

For the paraffinic and naphthenic base stocks it is important that everything (that is possible) is recycled and not incinerated.

Better antioxidant and tribological performance.

Editor’s Note: Sounding Board is based on an informal poll sent to 15,000 TLT readers. Views expressed are those of the respondents and do not reflect the opinions of the Society of Tribologists and Lubrication Engineers. STLE does not vouch for the technical accuracy of opinions expressed in Sounding Board, nor does inclusion of a comment represent an endorsement of the technology by STLE.