KEY CONCEPTS 
• The use of lithium grease thickeners has been experiencing volatility due to the cost of lithium hydroxide. However, recent lithium hydroxide prices are almost back to pre-pandemic levels.
• Alternative, non-lithium grease technologies are slowly emerging. 
• Given the strong projected demand for lithium from the automotive and energy storage sectors, there are different views on the future availability and price stability of lithium for grease applications.

Lithium grease is widely used for lubrication in mechanical systems. Its primary purpose is to reduce friction between moving parts, minimize wear on machine components and extend their lifespan. For many years, lithium greases have dominated the global grease market, accounting for more than 70%.¹

Current state
In recent years, the availability and prices of raw materials for manufacturing lithium greases have fluctuated, largely due to the demand-supply dynamics in the lithium industry. This situation has posed challenges for grease manufacturers in maintaining a consistent supply of lithium hydroxide and ensuring dependable production costs for lithium greases. Some end-users have therefore begun to transition away from lithium grease. However, lithium hydroxide prices have decreased significantly since late 2023 and are almost back to pre-pandemic levels.

Recent industry reports indicate that the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for lithium grease is projected to be between 3%-5% over the next three to five years, which aligns with trends observed in previous years.² This suggests that, while there are pressures in the market, there remains a steady demand for lithium greases.

Ashish Patki, director of business development and market intelligence at Arcadium Lithium, explains the above trends by stating that there is no such issue with lithium availability since the quality of lithium hydroxide for lithium-ion battery applications is different and more stringent compared to the lubricating grease industry requirements. “Secondly, volume requirements are different, too. Annual demand for lithium hydroxide for grease applications is less than 10% of the total demand today,” Patki says. 

“There is an abundance of lithium in the earth’s crust, and its availability depends on demands,” he says. Lithium mining has been increasing not only in the traditional lithium mining countries such as Argentina, Australia, Chile and China, but also in new countries/regions such as Africa, Brazil and Canada. Most of this mined lithium gets converted to lithium carbonate—the most widely produced and used form of lithium. Lithium hydroxide capacity and output also have been increasing in Australia, Chile, China, Japan, Korea, the U.S. and soon in Canada as well as Europe. “As with everything, economic factors influence cost and availability.” 

The lithium industry has experienced two price cycles since 2015—spot prices first increased from 2016 to mid-2018, and then from late 2021 to 2023. Lithium hydroxide spot prices have decreased significantly since then, and lithium hydroxide prices during most of 2024 are around early-to-mid-2016 levels of low-to-mid-teen $/kg. Market research firms’ latest forecasts for lithium hydroxide spot prices in 2025 are similar to the current levels. Effectively, despite the high demand growth from lithium-ion batteries, lithium hydroxide spot prices have mostly been in a range conducive for the economics of lithium greases for most of the past decade.

STLE member Dr. Gareth Fish, technical fellow, The Lubrizol Corp., dives deeper in the history of the recent lithium market volatility: “In 2015, when the first lithium crisis hit, it was believed that the spike in supply and cost would be transient, and it was thought that things would return to normal. More supply came online, and prices dropped but stayed at a  level above where it had been. According to the NLGI lubricating grease production surveys¹ covering the last 10 years in Europe, the supply and pricing issues had almost no effect on the volumes of conventional lithium greases, and lithium complexes grew slightly. In North America, lithium complexes have been the dominant thickener for the last 18 years. The last pricing crisis did not seem to hit supply, and the increased costs of greases were passed on to consumers.”


Lithium fields in the Atacama desert in Chile—one of the traditional lithium mining countries.

He explains: “The cost of a new homologation for a grease lubricated component can be above $250,000 and can take three to five years to implement. Component makers would rather pay a slight increase in the cost for a grease, rather than do an approval for an alternative grease.

“In 2026 or so, when the reproductive toxin 1A for lactation and fetal develop classification and labeling is likely to be applied to lithium hydroxide (and chloride and carbonate), many users of lithium and lithium complex thickened greases will want to move away from such greases. This will be a bigger impact than the supply cost and shortage.³ At least one bearing manufacturer has stated a desire to move away from lithium greases and to have alternatives approved by 2026.”

Alternative technologies
Dwaine (Greg) Morris, Americas product application specialist/team lead, grease, Shell, states that over time industry has gravitated to lithium greases, as they have been the “go-to” thickeners globally for decades. The market pressures have shifted demand, and prices have seen significant fluctuations. The reasons that lithium greases have been so prevalent are due to performance, cost effectiveness and versatility. These market pressures have affected the cost effectiveness of the products. Grease consumers have explored several thickener technologies to alleviate this market stress: anhydrous calcium, complexes of lithium, calcium sulfonate complexes, polyureas and others. Each of these alternatives have their pros and cons. He explains: “Anhydrous calcium greases are immune from the lithium market pressures but have a reduced upper operating temperature limit compared to lithium greases. They do share the versatility but are slightly lower in performance profile. They are a good alternative in some applications and have seen dramatic market growth in the last two years or so. According to the NLGI lubricating grease production survey, they have reached 10% market share of production in 2022 and rose dramatically in 2023. This is a global phenomenon, but there are pockets and markets that have not engaged to the same extent—North America and Japan for example.”

Morris adds: “North America is an outlier from the global market with lithium complexes being more widely used than standard lithium greases. There are several factors, but significant drivers in my experience are enhanced upper temperature limit performance and the NLGI GC-LB certification. Automotive wheel bearing applications have a higher peak operating temperature than is possible with lithium or anhydrous calcium greases. For that reason, and the market gravitation to the specification, lithium complex is more significant in North America. This is important in that the service interval is longer than that of standard lithium greases due to enhanced mechanical stability and heat resistance. The service life of a mineral lithium complex can be twice as long as that of a lithium grease, indicating that even as prices go up on lithium, the doubling of the service interval and increase in performance profile mitigate the lithium market impact somewhat. Again, you have versatility and in the case of North America, wide acceptance and proven performance.”


The growth of electric vehicles has created supply and cost issues with lithium hydroxide.

STLE member Chuck Coe, president, Grease Technology Solutions LLC, confirms that indeed lithium alternative grease thickeners are growing in demand and production in North America and other regions. Polyurea and calcium sulfonate in particular are growing in North America as well as in China. Anhydrous calcium is growing substantially in China, presumably to replace simple lithium thickener. The growth of EVs has created supply and cost issues with lithium hydroxide. The transitions away from lithium greases are evidenced by concurrent increases in anhydrous calcium (China), and calcium sulfonate and polyurea production (North America). 

Per Coe, there are multiple technical considerations changing to the alternatives: e.g., compatibility is a major consideration, both during manufacture and in end-use applications. Also, the choice of alternatives is driven by the end-use application.

He continues that the tighter supply of lithium influenced transition to alternative greases, and also calcium is widely available and less expensive than lithium. Per Coe, the only issue is that there are a limited number of producers who make polyurea grease, largely due to the hazardous nature of the raw materials. He says that perhaps preformed polyurea thickeners will help to alleviate this concern. Coe adds that the price of lithium hydroxide influenced transition to alternative greases, but due to a recent decline in lithium prices, it is allowing producers to switch back to lithium greases, although both manufacturers and users of grease don’t like to switch back and forth from one grease thickener type to another. Grease incompatibility can be a serious consequence.

Dr. Fish explains that the selection of the alternatives to conventional lithium depends on the application and the region of the world. It has been demonstrated³ that anhydrous calcium greases, when treated with thermal stabilizers, can match the performance of commodity conventional lithium soap thickened greases. However, in Europe, boron-containing components are no longer preferred options for thermal stabilizers, even polymeric ones that contain boron.⁴ Many mining and steel making greases migrated from aluminum complex to lithium and lithium complex thickened greases as the lithium had superior shear stability. These greases could migrate back to aluminum complex or, in some instances, if the shear stability is required then calcium sulfonate or calcium sulfonate complexes can be used. For bearing applications, urea-thickened greases offer enhanced life over lithium greases. Calcium sulfonate greases have been pushed as suitable alternatives to lithium complex greases, but these do not work for many applications.³ 

A significant amount of automotive grease is based on lithium soaps. Many specifications state that the thickener has to have a lithium soap thickener, and some say no calcium. These specifications would have to be modified to allow alternative thickeners. For the basic automotive grease required to operate from -40°C to +120°C, thermally stabilized anhydrous calcium greases could be used. For higher temperature applications, the only real choice is urea thickeners. Outside of Europe these could manufactured in situ, but in Europe due to capacity constraints, they would have to be based on preformed thickeners. In parts of Asia such as China, Japan and Korea, significant capacity to make additional urea-thickened greases is available but is currently not supplied due to cost constraints with urea thickener systems costing more than conventional lithium. In North America, significant amounts of domestically manufactured urea greases are used for the transplants. Some constraints on supply exist for urea-thickened greases, but as the current supply volume of lithium complex thickened greases is about 70,000 metric tons (MT), not all of it could move to urea and alternative thickeners would have to be chosen on a case-by-case basis. 

According to Dr. Fish: “Currently, greases specified for wind turbine pitch, yaw and main bearings typically require a lithium complex thickener. Standard wind turbine greases need to operate from -20°C to +60°C; these could easily be migrated to anhydrous calcium or calcium sulfonate complex grease.”

Morris says: “In some markets, including North America, calcium sulfonate complexes have been growing steadily over the last decade. They have not seen the dramatic change as with anhydrous calcium greases, but the increase is meaningful. The advantages of calcium sulfonate greases are in oxidative resistance. They have a high upper operating temperature limit and actually perform better at higher temperatures than lower temperature due to oil separation rates resulting in better lubricity. On the downside, the amount of thickener in an NLGI 2 CaSX is significantly higher than that of a lithium or lithium complex NLGI 2 grease. This impacts low temperature mobility that then leads to consistency compromises that can affect other performance parameters negatively (sealing/water resistance). Costs are not par with some lithium complexes, and although they are immune from lithium price pressures, their unit costs are not significantly better for the end-users. In addition, since they have low oil separation rates, they sometimes cause wear, and this is exacerbated at times in low ambient temperature applications. Customers who try them tend to really like them—they are very mechanically stable, heat resistant and generally perform well in the presence of water. Compatibility with other greases is sometimes an issue and dissuades end-users, but these issues can be overcome.”

Morris says: “Polyureas are an excellent alternative and have performance advantages over lithium, lithium complex and calcium sulfonate complexes. They offer very good to outstanding oxidative resistance, having a positive impact on service interval. Di-ureas have very good mechanical stability, and this has a net positive effect on service life, complementing the oxidative resistance. However, outside of certain markets, Japan namely, their use has not seen dramatic growth (although they have reached 10% in the latest NLGI lubricating grease production survey¹). There are several factors that have held down market growth—raw material handling, price and compatibility. While they are not easily transitioned to form alternative technologies, they are very capable of performing in a wide range of applications. They have thrived in fill-for-life applications in high-speed motors and certain automotive applications. They have the advantage of extended service interval (over lithium and standard lithium complex greases), and this can reduce total cost of operations—the supply of these greases has been somewhat limited. This is primarily due to concerns over raw material handling concerns for grease manufacturers. Therefore, manufacturers must isolate production and take extra handling precautions to ensure worker safety. This impacts costs and limits availability in some markets. New manufacturing methods (such as preformed polyurea powders) show excellent promise and alleviate the raw material concerns for grease manufacturers, which could result in more accessibility to the technology in untapped markets, reducing production costs without having a negative impact on performance expectations.”


Greases specified for wind turbine bearings typically require a lithium complex thickener.

Morris says: The evidence is in the economic drivers of supply and demand. Lithium grease production has been steady over time, but as more lithium is being consumed in battery production, the relative importance of lithium for greases (by market %), has declined. Lithium producers are going to cater to the market growth segments. The NLGI lubricating grease production survey (annually completed and presented by the NLGI¹) clearly show the trends over time from 2012 forward to 2023.

He adds that consumers specifically request alternatives to lithium, citing price volatility and a desire to immunize themselves from price escalation. This has happened in several sectors including steel production, over the road transportation and general industry. These replacement strategies have faced the hurdles as indicated above.

Per Morris some technical considerations are application peak temperatures, grease compatibility and service life in the application (due to mechanical life and oxidation). As stated, preformed polyurea powders show some promise for the expansion of polyurea production and uptake in the markets. Market pressures will result in other alternatives that require engineering solutions to support production.

Dr. Fish gives an example of the cost and technical considerations changing to the alternatives: “Anhydrous calcium greases are typically lower cost to manufacture and have lower raw material costs compared to convention lithium greases. Adding a thermal stabilizer to an anhydrous calcium grease will increase the raw material costs slightly but be largely neutral on manufacturing costs. Based solely on raw material costs without factoring manufacturing costs, for a high soap calcium sulfonate complex grease the breakeven point is around $25,000/MT lithium hydroxide cost. For high sulfonate complex and gels the breakeven point is around $35,000/MT. The breakeven point for urea greases is around $32,000/MT, although this varies with the choice of diisocyanate and amines used.”

Future state
Patki confirms that indeed there was an unusual supply-demand situation back in the second half of 2021 and during 2022 as there was a market tightness which was in line with the tightness within other industries. Leading lithium grease producers in North America, Europe and parts of Asia having long-term relationships with lithium hydroxide suppliers did not have challenges with availability of lithium hydroxide during this period. Overall, once the regional lithium hydroxide supply increases, and grease applications comprise a smaller and smaller share of overall regional and global lithium hydroxide demand, there will likely be no issue with the supply of lithium hydroxide for grease manufacturing. Mature industries such as grease typically have ways of addressing volatility of raw material prices.

For Morris the future is unclear: “Vehicle manufacturers are closely guarding their investigations and go forward strategies—rightfully so. Because we see fuel cells, solid state batteries, natural gas and hydrogen as alternatives, the race to a clear technology winner is uncertain. Technologies like immersion cooling have enabled faster charge times and enhanced safety, but infrastructure and range anxiety have hampered transitions to lithium battery vehicles. Early generation vehicles have had limitations, and the customer experience will drive reactions from the OEMs. If indeed lithium batteries are the primary solution, supply will increase and market conditions will reflect the new equilibrium.”

Coe says that it is not possible to predict which grease thickener technology will be leading in the future, but lithium grease production is likely to continue to slowly drop, while anhydrous calcium, calcium sulfonate and polyurea production will grow. The price and availability are two main concerns with lithium, thus there is a need for significant increases in supply from new mines, brine fields and other new extraction technologies, along with increased use of alternative battery technologies to lithium-ion technology.

Dr. Fish concurs that it is not possible to predict the future: “I have no idea where we will be at. It depends on the chemical controls introduced in Europe as a result of lithium hydroxide being classified as a Reprotoxin and also if lithium continues to be the main ingredient of batteries for EVs.” He adds that the lithium grease substitution trend in the future will depend on how things go in the next two to three years. Everything hinges on batteries and on the REACH substance of very high concern reactions.

Patki explains: “For a number of years, lithium producers have been participating in risk assessments for European Chemical Agency’s (ECHA) proposed classification of lithium salts as reproductive toxicants. The European Union Lithium Consortium and International Lithium Association members have maintained that ECHA’s recommendation is not based on solid scientific evidence but on unreliable studies which lack merit. Countries such as the U.S., Australia, Argentina and Chile (as well as several countries in Europe) have all raised concerns about the lack of scientific consensus. Ultimately, regardless of the classification outcome in Europe, there will be a Risk Management Option pathway, which would allow for lithium to continue being mined, processed and used in the continent.”

Conclusions
On Oct. 2, 2024, in a panel discussion with Bloomberg, French President Emmanuel Macron delivered a pessimistic outlook for the European Union, warning that lack of investment and too much regulation would make the block uncompetitive.⁵ Circling back to the grease discussion here, since there are no concerns about lithium availability, prices are back to the pre-pandemic level and toxicity is being disputed, perhaps lithium greases still have a shot in the marketplace and the projected 3%-5% CAGR² is very valid. Way before volatility with lithium, some years ago, an instructor of the NLGI grease course at that time and my mentor Marc Oosterlinck told me that overbased calcium sulfonate can be used in over 80% of grease applications, aside of few such as electric motors/electronics related where polyurea is ideal. So, if there will be challenges with lithium, the alternative options are available already.

REFERENCES
1. NLGI (2023), “NLGI lubricating grease production survey.” Available here.
2. Arizton (2022), “Lithium grease market - Global outlook and forecast 2022-2027.” Available here.
3. ELGI (2024), “High performance alternatives to lithium greases,” ELGI 34th Annual Meeting, Madrid, Spain, April 2024.
4. Eurogrease (2023), “Formulating challenges in an increasingly regulated world,” ELGI 33rd Annual Meeting, Amsterdam, May 2023.
5. Bloomberg (2024), “Macron says over-regulation to leave Europe behind US, China.” Available here.

Dr. Yulia Sosa is a freelance writer based in Peachtree City, Ga. You can contact her at dr.yulia.sosa@gmail.com.