Executive Summary
There is some uncertainty among readers in regards to the future of lithium grease. While the use of lithium in electric vehicle (EV) batteries may increase costs and lead to a decrease in the use of lithium greases, the transition to replacements may be slow. Environmental and health concerns could accelerate this, however. Promising alternatives to lithium greases include polyurea and calcium sulphonates, depending on the application.
Q.1. How do you see the future of lithium greases in this electric vehicle-driven era?
Due to their versatility simple lithium greases and complex lithium greases will remain the majority of greases unless lithium prices will increase approximately tenfold!
I see lithium-based greases dropping in overall percentages. Other soaps are now as competitive in pricing and offer other unique benefits.
Largely driven by supply rather than application concerns.
I see lithium grease being priced out of feasibility due to increasing demand for EV batteries.
A switch from lithium to higher performance lithium complex greases, mostly with synthetic base oils. Friction reduction, prolonged relubricating intervals and increased km per Kw are key here. Polyurea and specialty greases will most likely be the next step as lithium is facing some regulatory and health and safely constraints. Sustainability of lithium overall is quite low, so new technologies might be beneficial here, too.
Various alternatives are available in the present-day market. The concept of EVs becomes contradictory when evaluated for the energy spent to mine the lithium. So I would look at alternate options probably like calcium sulphonates or polyurea.
I think that lithium will be replaced with calcium. Better supply and performance.
Lithium grease use will decline because of competing demand for lithium for manufacturing of lithium batteries.
Will be a very high price product.
I think lithium will need to be supplemented at a minimum with alternatives. I think it will take a combination of alternatives to replace lithium complex thickeners.
As supply chains for lithium are squeezed, most will be diverted into batteries at the expense of the grease market—hence, until sodium ion batteries take a more significant position in the market, I suspect that polyurea greases are likely to increase versus a decrease in lithium-based thickeners.
I think lithium grease will slowly reduce in market share, but we have been talking about its replacement for a long time, and little has changed.
The thickener in lithium greases can have a possible concern in EVs. Water washout and viscosity retention with or without polymers is a concern. The supply of lithium is a concern for uninterrupted supply. Polyurea is more applicable in my opinion if a “lifetime” type grease is required. Calcium sulphonate complex is desired simply due to lower viscosity base oil required along with other desirable qualities of the chemistry.
Depends on the application being filled for life, lithium supply and cost. Lithium thickener systems are very versatile over a wide range of applications and environments. If most applications are filled for life, then polyurea could certainly see an increase in market share.
Gradually replaced by other thickener technologies, like polyurea.
Slight decline.
Phasing out in favor of calcium sulfonate greases due to the draw of lithium into batteries. If alternative ions for batteries are developed, lithium grease will make a comeback.
The supply of lithium grease will be limited due to the increased production demand of lithium batteries.
I believe with respect to seal-for-life application for EV motor, polyurea type grease would be a better choice especially when EV continues to be driven by lithium battery.
The lithium market is beginning to stabilize with the increase in the mining capacity available. Barring unforeseen changes, lithium greases will continue to be a mainstay.
In my opinion, lithium greases will continue to dominate the market. Polyurea greases may increase as a result of electrification, but lithium greases will remain the most viable option for industrial and heavy-duty applications.
Lithium, as we all know, is becoming a scarcer resource and will likely become more expensive as time goes on. Depending on the configuration of the EV, lighter (ISO VG) greases may be required, likely with a synthetic base oil (PAO) to reduce drag. I don’t foresee any tremendous growth in the amount of grease required, though there could be some modifications (wheel hubs) that could change that quantity.
I think it will continue to shrink as long as the demand for EV lithium is as strong as it has been.
Haven’t thought about it but being uneducated in EV design, I would say polyurea grease would be the better choice.
Straight lithium grease is the low-cost staple of the grease lubrication business and likely to continue into the future, but like all lubricant selection, you can’t really generalize on a particular industry sector because it very much depends upon the application! It could be that polyurea greases will dominate, or perhaps lithium complex or perhaps calcium sulfonate—it all depends on the development of the EV technology, and in particular how heat is managed which effects lubricant lifetime and grease selection.
Which is the most promising alternative to lithium lubricating grease?
Calcium grease
19%
Aluminum grease
8%
Calcium sulphonate grease
49%
Polyurea grease
39%
None of the above
7%
All of the above
16%
Based on an informal poll sent to 15,000 TLT readers. Total exceeds 100% because respondents were allowed to choose more than one answer.
Lithium greases will likely be supplanted by calcium sulphonate greases as the demand for EV production and energy storage, and, thus, lithium batteries increases. Furthermore, there are some formulations of calcium sulphonate greases that already offer significant advantages over their traditional lithium counterparts due to unique performance characteristics in wet environments.
Supply will be constrained. Alternative grease chemistries will need to be investigated if even a fraction of the expected lithium demand from EVs comes to pass.
I would forecast that simple lithium grease production will continue its slow decline globally. Anhydrous calcium thickened greases are already taking a larger share of global production. On the other hand, I don’t see lithium complex grease production decreasing at the same rate, due to the complexity of replacing higher technology products with a different thickener type. OEM and customer approvals may be required, and grease compatibility is a bigger issue. Nevertheless, calcium sulfonate, polyurea and to a lesser extent aluminum complex greases all are growing and seem to be replacing lithium complex grease in certain sectors.
See continued use with additional other thickeners entering the market. Those will be OEM-driven choices for electric motor bearing lubricants as well as the presumed cost of the thickener component. If lithium becomes short in supply due to battery technologies, other thickeners will take its place.
I don’t see a change in lithium greases at this point. EV batteries rely heavily on lithium so sourcing and supplies can change the effect on lithium grease. Changing to an alternate grease rather than developing a new battery system will be much easier, so lithium grease usage may decrease as lithium supplies are earmarked for use in batteries.
Lithium grease availability will be challenging because of lithium being used for EV batteries and other batteries used in renewable energy production. The next grease thickener will be polyurea as it is environmentally friendly and has excellent protective coating properties. It is versatile and fish friendly.
This will depend almost entirely on the pricing and availability of lithium hydroxide. If lithium thickeners are no longer cost effective, then the market will switch to alternatives. Which alternative is most appropriate will depend on the application.
Initially I thought lithium grease was in peril with the demands of (existing technology) EVs; however, I have since changed my stance realizing that the adoption of EVs, on the whole, will likely not transpire as predicted. To have to wait hours to charge a vehicle, even if you can find an open charging station, makes the use of lithium in current battery technologies a serious deterrent. If a battery technology emerges that can cut wait times to perhaps five minutes, or employ a removable battery option, then perhaps consumers will shift their buying choices. However, that presumes lithium is the primary element in that battery. Otherwise, lithium, in the long term, has a secure future for grease manufacturing.
Formulas and additives can evolve, but they (lithium greases) can be still in use.
Decreasing in the automotive industry.
Lithium thickened greases will continue to become more expensive just as supply becomes more challenged. However, knowledgeable users will migrate to alternative options once the price point justifies the conversion. The casual customer will continue to use whatever grease is on the shelf regardless of compatibility or performance issues. The future for snake oil salesmen is bright.
Lithium greases will lose their position in the future, because of the lithium availability in the world. In the future other grease types will become more important, especially in the field of EVs.
Availability may be a concern in the near term/long term, some mix of new battery technology and lithium battery recycling will render today’s concerns moot.
They will still be around.
I see lithium thickeners being replaced with the more sophisticated thickeners as demands trend toward speed applications.
Concern over lithium supply and cost will continue to drive the development and commercialization of alternate products. There also is some regulatory pressure surrounding lithium hydroxide that may force additional switching. The real question is whether volumes stay switched if price and supply become more positive such as from new sources, alternate battery technology, etc. It will likely depend on how long the situation lasts and how entrenched alternate technologies become.
I think there’s no future for lithium greases.
Lithium is an important resource for battery production. Therefore, the grease industry will be forced to reduce the lithium content in their products.
Not certain. Lots of challenges there. The batteries in EVs are already consuming a large portion of the lithium market. EV motors run hot, can run heavily loaded depending on the situation and also run in all climates. The greases are going to need to have the additives and the right base oil to protect the bearings under many extreme circumstances. Lithium greases will still be used on chassis components and other areas. I would expect alternative thickeners are being considered like polyurea.
Very bright.
Probably become more costly to make.
It will be an interesting innovation in the automotive industry.
Lithium grease will play a very important role in maintaining a reliable operation of electric motor and drivetrain as EVs do not rely on oil like conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle. Grease also needs to be long life and synthetic-based oil may be used.
Lithium phased out and calcium greases are becoming the major product. Calcium performs better than lithium but historically was more expensive. Now that change has occurred it only makes sense that manufacturers will make the change.
Since most of the components are rotating, lithium grease could be of much benefit to the EVs. This is because lithium grease withstands great heat, and it will be able to handle what will be generated by the EV motors.
With the restrictions coming due to the reprotoxic 1A classification, the volume of lithium grease used in many markets will decline. For the long life sealed-for-life applications, urea greases will be more widely used but probably via pre-formed urea derivatives. For mining and construction applications, calcium sulfonate and aluminum complex will be more widely used. For general applications, calcium greases either based on thermally stabilized or hybrid technology will replace many commodity lithium soap greases.
Most likely more price fluctuations/increases as lithium demand increases.
As a success project because lithium is essential to the production of lithium-ion batteries, that are used in EVs, energy storage systems and other clean energy technologies. The global demand for lithium has experienced significant growth in the last years. As the world shifts toward renewable energy sources and aims to reduce carbon emissions, the demand for lithium-ion batteries in EVs and energy storage systems has been increasing and with it the production of lithium greases.
Probably lithium greases will be reducing the participation in greases due to the competition with electric batteries.
The approximate total quantity of grease used in a typical ICE and EV remains the same.
Yes
47%
No
53%
Based on an informal poll sent to 15,000 TLT readers.
I do not expect too much change in the future of lithium greases. Lithium volume available for grease might remain about the same because lithium production is increasing, and an alternate solution might arise for battery electric vehicles’ (BEVs’) energy storage.
Good, however, it requires more training in industries.
Lithium greases can be useful from -40°C to 100°C, but they are not good at high load.
If production of lithium does not grow at a rate to meet grease and EV batteries demand, the tendency will be in favor of producing batteries, as there are thickener alternatives to replace lithium.
Not the first choice but used when conditions ask for their strengths.
Depends on the OEM hardware design.
May be alternated by other thickeners by some ratio but will remain.
It’s necessary to synthesize grease with conductive properties. In order to do that, the addition of conductive material is required.
The demand for these greases like lithium complex grades will continue.
The demand may increase since electrified components that require grease lubrication may increase.
Will reduce in the future (given the various work in progress to find alternatives). Also in view of increased use of lithium resources to make EV batteries.
If lithium hydroxide maintains at the current price, other thickeners will take his place, purely due to economics.
The future of lithium grease is more dependent on a possible classification as a reproductive toxin than on the cost and availability of lithium. The cost will affect the use in price sensitive applications, but a classification will affect all applications.
The use of lithium grease in this EV-driven era will gradually increase.
There might be solutions avoiding greases and using the fluids to lubricate the bearings.
It’s still too vague for the moment. There’s still a lot of uncertainty. 1.) Several battery technologies are currently being developed (sodium batteries, for example) and could change the game. Depending on energy efficiency, recharging times, weight and price, it’s hard to know which technology will be linked to which type of use and therefore market. 2.) New lithium extraction technologies (direct lithium extraction, DLE) also may change the market.
It is going to be replaced progressively by calcium.
I see alternative formulations taking more of the grease market, followed by more creative methods of producing lithium needed for greases that may impact the greases as a result.
Will decrease and be replaced by polyurea and/or calcium grease.
They will play a minor role.
I believe that lithium saponified fats will still be very important (despite concerns about the availability and rising price of lithium).
Will be less used because lithium will be for batteries.
Lithium greases will continue to be used in applications where it provides the best benefit profile of cost and performance.
Polyurea grease is better for EV motors (typical fill for life) and constant velocity joint, but lithium greases are typical for chassis, wheel bearing and other applications. So overall I don’t see any change in use of lithium grease for EV versus ICE cars.