An old media adage holds that while dog bites man is too common an occurrence to be newsworthy, man bites dog is a headline. Many of the world’s largest automobile companies recently made headlines for a similar reason. After fighting increased fuel economy legislation in the U.S. for decades, a joint letter from 17 automakers, including General Motors, Ford and Toyota, was recently sent to the U.S. government’s executive branch specifically asking the current administration not to delay the implementation of stricter fuel economy standards!

This is certainly good news for the automotive tribologist, as increasing fuel economy through friction reduction in vehicles is a popular area of research. The latest specification for gasoline fueled engine oils, GF-6, specifically addresses low-viscosity grades and requires that oils demonstrate friction reduction for longer periods. Low-friction materials, coatings and surface modifications continue to be investigated and implemented in new engines to reduce friction, especially in the piston, piston ring and cylinder bore areas.

Why are the world’s largest automakers asking the U.S. to increase fuel economy standards? The answer is mostly due to the shifting nature of automobile sales worldwide. The U.S. was the world’s largest market for automobiles, essentially from the dawn of the Industry Revolution through the 20th Century. However, China has overtaken the market and now represents 35% of automobile sales, with the U.S. at 25%. Further, China has implemented fuel economy regulation and has set a schedule of increasing requirements that is unlikely to change.

So, should the U.S. freeze or reverse the progression, auto companies could be faced with diverging requirements in their two largest markets, making it more difficult for companies to design and build vehicles on a limited number of basic architectures. In addition, states such as California have enacted limits on the amount of CO₂ vehicles can emit, in effect setting their own fuel economy standards. 

While the states claim the authority to do so under the Clean Air Act, the current administration is seeking to prohibit the states from doing so, effectively setting up a prolonged battle in the courts. This will create further uncertainty for the car companies, which generally take several years to design a new vehicle, and plan to be able to sell a new vehicle for many years. Not knowing the regulations that will be in force, even a few years down the road, requires automakers to either delay new designs, or have potentially expensive contingency plans in place depending on the outcome of such legal battles.

Worst-case scenario? Some of the major companies could decide to abandon the U.S. market and focus on places where the future regulatory environment is more stable. This would like impact consumers in two main ways—less choice and higher prices.