Charting our future
Edward P. Salek, CAE, Executive Director | TLT Headquarters Report August 2019
Work is under way. Please help STLE collect data for the 2020 edition of our Emerging Trends Report.
Work to date has identified more than 140 trends in the report’s four target sectors: manufacturing, transportation, energy and medical and health.
© Can Stock Photo / tobkatrina
STLE’s Report on Emerging Issues and Trends in Tribology and Lubrication Engineering, informally known as the Trends Report, has gained a reputation for identifying current and future developments in the field since it was first published in 2014. A second edition, released in 2017, continued to capture the interest of individuals and companies in the tribology and lubricants business sector, as well as other stakeholders in academia, government and the general public.
STLE and others have used the report to facilitate a conversation on a global scale through conference presentations in North America, Europe and Asia and at individual meetings with corporate members. The report has helped to identify and predict the impact of important technologies and areas of concern as they relate to the field, industry and even society and the world economy.
Work is underway on a third edition of the Trends Report with a target release date of early 2020. The research is being directed by a blue-ribbon Advance Innovations team of STLE members chaired by Thomas W. Scharf, professor in the department of materials science and engineering at the University of North Texas. McKinley Advisors (Washington, D.C.) is again serving as research and data analytics consultant as well as providing overall project management.
The third edition builds on the previous trends and conclusions but also has been refocused and reorganized to reflect the rapid pace of change affecting all areas of relevant technology. As a result, the 2020 report has consolidated application sectors into four high-interest topics: transportation, medical and health, energy and manufacturing.
Work to date has identified more than 140 trends for consideration in these four sectors. The Advance Innovations team has been supported in this analysis by 20 invited experts from industry, academia and government labs. Transportation yielded the highest number (57) with considerable interest surrounding the implications and opportunities presented by electric and self-driving vehicles but also developments in internal combustion engines.
“Improving lubricants and additives in response to unique torque performance of electric motors. They have a much higher torque and lower RPM than internal combustion motors, and the lubricants we have today weren’t designed to deal with that,” is how one expert characterized the impact of EV technology.
Part two of the 2020 report examines 80 trends in five field discipline areas, a section that includes three holdover topics (workforce issues, government regulations and safety, the environment and basic human needs) and two new topics (research funding and materials cost and availability).
That last topic was added to incorporate new challenges that have emerged since the Trends Report series began in 2014. For example, “A potential lithium shortage for the grease market has an indirect impact on lithium batteries in electric vehicles. How much will that restrict the growth of electric vehicles?” wondered one expert.
The research funding discussion has revolved around the fact that tribology is not a “buzz word” to get research money from public or private sources, especially in the U.S. “We have to sell tribology differently, incorporate it into different topics. What we would need is success in a field that doesn’t have a solution yet, like osteoarthritis. That would bring us back on the map,” is how one individual framed the issue.
The next phase for the 2020 Trends Report is collecting data through a general survey of STLE members this month and September. The Advance Innovations team invites STLE members to support the project and take the opportunity to contribute their expertise to this important research project. They survey questionnaire asks members to rate the significance of trends and to comment on their future impact.
Data analysis and editorial work on the 2020 Report will occur in the fourth quarter of this year in advance of the target release date early next year. In the meantime, all TLT readers have the opportunity to download a free copy of both the 2017 and 2014 reports from
www.stle.org.
You can reach Certified Association Executive Ed Salek at esalek@stle.org.