Electric vehicle lubrication
Executive Summary
Readers are split on how severely the lubricants industry would be impacted if EVs grow as quickly as many analysts say (a prediction many STLE members disagree with). Some TLT readers believe the reduced need for traditional crankcase oils could leave the lubricants industry a market without direction. Others maintain that parts still need to be manufactured and lubricated, and the STLE-member market segment will quickly adapt. Many readers forecast a new market for high-quality, EV-specific lubricants, while others see a renewed emphasis on grease-technology R&D. STLE members also are evenly divided on how demand for the MWFs market will be affected by a rapidly expanding EV market. Some say demand will decrease along with the number of parts needed to manufacture EVs, while others say the MWFs market will shift its focus on the kinds of parts machined but remain vibrant.
It’s going to be all about reducing friction. I would expect to see more solid lubricants.
Not much. Tribology will be applied to the latest trends, but friction, wear and lubrication will remain.
Fewer run-of-the mill products, more custom formulation solutions.
Less reliance on the drive for improved motor oils and more science devoted to improving other lubricants.
Market will readily adapt. Less than a year.
Lubricants will need to be developed that address the specific needs of electric vehicles.
The science of tribology will need to adopt/incorporate the needs of the electric vehicles. Partnering with electric vehicle manufactures now will help in developing possibly new lubricants to address conductivity, temperatures, speeds and other needs.
Lubrication practices will evolve with technology advancements.
Development of lubrication for devices operating under start-stop regime can be of great importance.
EVs are not going to use a lot of lubricants, particularly engine oils. Changes in hydraulic systems are eliminating the need for lubricants. So lubrication engineering will decrease in demand to a certain extent. The science of tribology concerns way more than just lubricants and probably will be fine.
Energy efficiency will be a much greater consideration in an effort to extend battery life and maximizing miles per charge.
Increase in better-performing lubes.
I see no change in this field. Reduced friction always will be a goal no matter which power train.
Less attention to the use of additives to reduce the impact of combustion byproducts.
It is not just electric vehicles but doing more with less (lower friction, wear and energy losses).
One more market segment might develop, but lubrication products and technology will not change much.
Lubricant market might shift toward other areas besides automotive.
Less focus on internal-combustion engines.
Growth of electrification is exaggerated and not as practical as people are being led to believe. For instance, consider the fuel taxes that pay for road maintenance. How much are the EVs paying for that? How does that tax impact the cost comparison? How much CO
2 is emitted from CNG vehicles? See Cummins Westport near zero emission engines that were marketed in 2018. That technology is already here and is not limited by range anxiety, nor is it a strain on the grid. I believe we should be looking toward natural gas as a viable alternative, which is abundant in the U.S. and pricing trends are making this the cheaper option.
Higher conditions; more engineered lubricants.
I think there are existing solutions to any new issues and it’s hard to see the industry investing in new solutions to a scenario that reduces demand.
You would adjust accordingly. The operating environment has changed and so must you. Less lubricant for longer periods of time.
I think we will see an overall decrease in funding to this area since PCMOs make up a majority of lubricant demand. We will need to be thriftier with the resources we do retain. I also would expect the majority of research to go into non-conductive greases for a time as well as additives to prolong the bearing life.
Not much. We will keep going forward.
It will focus more on industrial lubrication and MWFs. Engine test stands will be replaced with hydraulic stands and CNC test machines. A large reduction in the number of scientists working on lubrication technologies and testing will be experienced.
It will change—no engine and transmission oils and fewer oils of high quality. It is hoped that one oil can fit all functions. Nanotechnology will contribute lots for future lube industries.
Grease will be a lubricant that desires much more attention, also in R&D. It is a difficult lube, so there is plenty to do.
I think there will be more of an emphasis on reducing friction at the wheel to increase efficiency, so there could be an increased focus on bearing lubrication.
It will be more targeted toward EV hardware as opposed to ICEV hardware.
More ferrography could be used with greater success. No combustion contamination would affect the accurate establishment of benchmarks for components. Possibly more grease analysis. More emphasis may be on lubricant heat-carrying capacity.
Formulators will have to consider the ramifications of designing products as insulating lubricants, conductive lubricants, etc.
More focus on electric-related topics and all aspects of influences from lubricants in such applications.
Market basics will not change; they will adapt to the materials used for parts of e-vehicles.
Shifts toward EV vehicles. Cars, trucks, delivery trucks, over-the-road trucks, drones and space shuttles and labs and working communities in space will still rely on the hardware that we experience today. More reliance on AI for these fields. More sophisticated IT technologies. Coatings or alternatives that perform in these environments, etc.
A lot of technical standards will change because of different requirements.
It will need a wider focus in electrical-contact impedance.
More of a focus on lower viscosity materials with less need for thermal stability.
Manufacturers are looking for higher power efficiency, so reduced friction will be very important.
What MWFs will see increased usage if the trend toward all-electric vehicles progresses?
Solution synthetic
51%
Semisynthetic
32%
Soluble oil
7%
Straight oil
10%
Based on responses sent to 15,000 TLT readers.
Q.2: How will electric vehicles affect lubricant markets, including MWFs?
There will be a higher availability of Gr3 and Gr4 fluids for MWF and lubrication markets as EVs gain traction, and there is less demand for engine oil blend stocks.
MWF market: Probably very little impact. Lubricant market: Crankcase lubricants will decrease in sales. Other automotive liquid/grease requirements might not be affected.
Automotive lubricant consumption will go down since there are fewer moving parts surfaces needing lubrication.
No effect.
Minimal impact.
Not much, as the lubrication of electric machinery has been developed for years in the industrial applications. The main change will be variations in the base oil and additive markets.
Clearly there will be major changes in the manufacturing processes of the powertrain. Changes to the manufacture of ancillary systems and structural parts will be less but might still be significant.
Quite deeply. New or not well-known materials, new working rates, bio-degradability and compatibility questions. There are environmental questions, too.
I do not believe the number of electrical vehicles will be as prevalent as currently predicted.
It’s already impacting the industry, particularly grease manufacturers and lithium shortages in the market.
There will be a small decline in MWF usage as well as automotive internal combustion engine lubricants. Simply because the machining required to produce engine parts will be reduced, and with fewer engines being used engine lubricants also will be slightly less.
Of course, the PCMO requirement for new vehicles will change; however, routine maintenance for the existing fleet will continue for a long time. Perhaps there will be no new API classes at some point. On the other hand, there should be no significant impact on MWFs by EVs per se.
It will decrease the demand for MWFs.
Lubricant market may be hit as a result of using other lubrication technologies.
No major impact on MWFs, big impact on lubricants.
It will require more attention to tolerances and clean-room operations.
Lightweight high-strength steels and aluminum demands more specialized formulas.
All still will be required.
I think the MWFs market will be greatly less impacted than the lubricant market because the parts to make the vehicles will still need to be made.
More and different challenges with lower volumes.
Less engine oil needed.
Lubricants may need to be non-conductive.
The move from ICE to electric drive will change the types and volume of MWFs needed in automobile production. It also will reduce the need for engine oil, but other lubricants (transmission fluid, brake fluid, greases) will remain.
Machined parts will still be needed, so the MWFs industry will not be as greatly impacted as the lubricant markets. Electric vehicles require fewer lubricant reservoirs, and synthetic/lubed-for-life products may takeover and greatly reduce the lubricant demand.
The auto engine oils market will change dramatically.
Small effect on MWFs but major effect on lubricants, obviously crankcase lubes.
The need for high-end metalworking coolants that can form and machine light weight metals like aluminum, magnesium and titanium will be desired.
The MWFs market might shift focus on the parts machined but remain strong. Lubricants will likely shift to more energy-efficient oils and greases.
Yes, and the need for high-quality, high-performance products will be more paramount than ever before!
A downward slope but perhaps not as dramatic as one might think.
Only marginally.
Less machining for the motors and batteries but likely more stamping. Obviously less crankcase oil but possibly more grease use.
Not a whole lot. Most needs will be met by existing technology and products.
Long term it will definitely affect the lubricant market.
Expect new materials will need to be manufactured for developing technologies and new propulsion options while also maintaining ICE production at a steady rate. EV will not be a significant negative impact from current production needs for as long as petroleum-based fuel is being used, which, in my opinion, will be a long time. We will likely see a dominance of ICE vehicles and then a co-existence with hybrid and alternative propulsion technologies for many years.
Fewer parts means fewer MWFs to manufacture the parts. Simpler engines mean different lubrication needs.
It seems to me that there should be an increase in usage of emulsion-based MWFs while the straight oil market will drastically decline since there will be no need for honing oils. Cutting oils also will decrease since differentials will no longer be needed, and those gears will no longer need to be manufactured.
Small reduction. Still need precision metal.
Major disruption in the lubricants market. PCMO is such a large percentage of the market and drives additive and base oil development. Without PCMO, the industry will lack direction.
What effect do you believe the trend toward electric vehicles will have on the lubricants industry?
Positive effect—our solutions are needed more than ever
45%
Little or no effect—life goes on
21%
Negative effect—reduced emphasis on engine oil
34%
Based on responses sent to 15,000 TLT readers.