Improving with age

Dr. Edward P. Becker | TLT Automotive Tribology February 2015

Thanks in part to tribologists, U.S. drivers are keeping their cars in service longer than ever.
 

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A RECENT STUDY BY POLK, a provider of data and marketing services to the automotive industry that recently was acquired by IHS Inc., has some good news for the automotive industry (1). The average age of a vehicle on the road in the U.S. is now 11.4 years, a new high. Polk further predicts this will rise to 11.7 years by 2019, a 2.63 percent increase.

Why is this good news? First, it is a testament to the skills of the automotive tribologist. Engines, transmissions and other moving components have continued to become more reliable, and even routine maintenance intervals have increased substantially. STLE Life Member Ken Ludema (2), with the University of Michigan, gives a sample of the steps necessary to keep a 1916 Maxwell running, with multiple steps every day, week and month.

Many systems in automobiles are now permanently sealed, and the number of DIY (do it yourself) tasks has fallen dramatically. By some estimates (3), fewer than 25 percent of oil changes in the U.S. are DIY. The day may come when cars no longer have a hood release lever that the customer can operate, and there will be a warning label on the hood that states “No User Serviceable Parts Inside!”

Second, for the automotive manufacturer, the slowing of the increase rate in the average vehicle age will be primarily due to an increase in new vehicle sales. Polk forecasts an increase in the total vehicle population from the current 247 million to 260 million by 2018. That increase is on top of the sales of replacements for the 14 million vehicles scrapped annually. Of course, not all manufacturers will share equally in this increase. Consumers ultimately will reward those with the best quality, reliability and durability at a reasonable price.

Third, even though maintenance intervals are longer now, older vehicles do require service to keep running. Parts that predictably wear out such as tires, brakes, belts, hoses, etc., do require periodic replacement to keep the vehicle in a safe operating condition. Very few drivers are comfortable doing these repairs themselves, so there is ample opportunity for qualified service outlets to fill this need.

Finally, the biggest winners are the vehicle owners themselves. The decision to sell a car after 6.5 years (presently the average age of a trade-in) is no longer based on necessity. Generally, the trade-in has many useful years left. The customer gets a decent return to apply toward the new car, and another buyer gets a serviceable vehicle at a fraction of the cost of new.

REFERENCES
1. Click here. 
2. Ludema, K.C. (1996), Friction, Wear, Lubrication: A Textbook in Tribology, CRC Press, pp. 6-7.
3. Click here.


Ed Becker is an STLE Fellow and past president. He is president of Friction & Wear Solutions, LLC, in Brighton, Mich., and can be reached through his website at www.frictionandwearsolutions.com.