Name a technical trend or innovation you saw in 2014 that you believe will grow in 2015.

TLT Sounding Board December 2014

 

Green lubrication—that was the overwhelming theme from TLT readers responding to this month’s question on 2015 market and technology trends. Lower-viscosity lubricants, greater acceptance of synthetics and more products produced from the gas-to-liquid process were among the top answers. Many respondents also noted the trend toward nanoparticles in lubricant additives. Government legislation, particularly emission regulations and the Global Harmonized System (GHS) will be among the key 2015 market drivers, according to TLT readers. For more on GHS, see Neil Canter’s feature article in this issue.

Improvements in synthetic base oils for longer service life.

Energy efficiency via lower viscosity products.

Water-extendable fluids containing no formaldehyde releaser.

Increase trend to renewable chemistry by both the end-user and additives suppliers.

3D printers.

Application of nanoparticle additives.

New base oils, produced from renewable feedstocks, demonstrate that they can provide high quality and compete with polyalphaolefins.

(1.) Gas-to-liquid (GTL) technology for lubricants. (2.) Regulatory updates of chlorinated paraffins and options on alternatives.

Use of lower viscosity oils.

Big data analysis.

Nanoparticles used as additives.

More G2 and G3 base oils used with an accompanying market shift. GTL base oil will play a role for our company, which is a basestock supplier.

Hydraulic oil testing.

Research on nanoparticles for lube applications.

Ionic liquids.

Growth of high Group IV base fluids.

Green lubrication seems to be the hot topic at this point. It seems likely that it will make even greater inroads in 2015.

Use of video thermal imaging.

Varnish formation issues in energy-generating and turbomachinery.

On-site lube analysis.

Electronic tablets seemed to be more widespread in sales calls and presentations, and I see that continuing to grow.

Higher-performing synthetic base oils.

OTR CNG/LNG engines.

Renewable base fluids.

Energy efficiency will be the driver for the future.

More global OEM specifications for industrial lubricants.

Use of industrial additives in novel basestocks such as oil-soluble PAG, PAO/ester blends or vegetable basestocks.

This is not really new, and it’s not really technology, but GHS is becoming the primary focus in bringing products to market.

Group IV base oils.

Environmentally aware lubricants.

Fuel economy as the driving market force.

Use of 5w30 or 10w30 heavy duty truck engine oils instead of 15w40.

Increased focus on developing bio-derived products.

Ashless lubricating oils.

Nanotribology.

New turbine machines being produced for power generation.

Energy-efficiency improvements and greater acceptance of synthetics.

Synthetic lubricants.

Nano-tech additive packages.

Oil-based products replacement with water-based products.

The Internet in the middle of all things, enabling connective-global mobility.

Lower-viscosity HDEO.

Increased growth of oil and gas from fracking in the U.S.

A trend toward greater emphasis on fuel-efficient power train fluids.

Growth in biodegradable lubricants.

Low-viscosity engine oils in heavy duty applications made a huge advance in 2014.

Remote (wireless) equipment condition monitoring and control.

The increasing prominence and availability of environmentally acceptable lubricants for the marine market.

Increasing demand for the TEOST 33c test.

Lighter-viscosity fluids.

Increase in water glycol use operating at higher temperatures.

Shifting base oil usage and pricing.

What kind of business year was 2014 for your company?
Better than we expected 29%
About what we expected 54%
Worse than we expected 17%
Based on responses sent to 13,000 TLT readers.

What market trends do you think will have the biggest impact on the lubricants industry in 2015?
Energy-conserving lubricants. Not just automotive but for industrial.

Greenhouse gas regulations and energy-efficiency requirements.

The trend toward regulatory-friendly products. This will cause the market to look at more renewable base chemistries.

Emission legislation.

The transition to oil-free lubrication will accelerate, driven by low-friction coatings such as DLC.

(1.) Low viscometrics in engine oil (HDDEO, PCMO) in order to increase fuel economy and reduce greenhouse gases. (2.) GTL technology for lubricants.

GHS and new engine oil standards.

EAL lubricants, the further push for oil cleanliness and best practices on lubrication processes and handling.

Low-viscosity lubes coming on strong.

Base oil oversupply.

Consolidation among players while fly-by-nighters continue to proliferate, particularly in non-U.S. markets.

Lower crude oil price globally.

Federal CO₂ reduction regulations.

Excess base oils and the pricing and performance place of GTL.

Volatility in prices of base oils and chemicals.

Emissions regulations.

Excess production.

The continued decline in crude pricing due to North American advances in fracking. It should continue to drive down costs of fuels and lubricants.

Value selling, knowledge of products and services that add value to a particular customer and, more important, how to sell these values.

Recycled oils will continue to grow in market share along with environmentally friendly lubricants.

Low natural gas prices spurring petrochemical investment.

GHS at least through 2015.

The shifting industrial market will open many opportunities.

Providing lubricants to a growing market.

Large multinational companies purchasing small niche companies to grow the business and eliminate the competition.

I think in the marine and power generation markets we will see large movements in product supply.

The continuing emphasis on automotive CAFE standards pushing to lower-viscosity grades.

A flat or shrinking economy.

Drive to higher energy efficiency across the board for all stationary, vehicle, marine and aviation applications.

Extended drain (longer life of oil).

Fuel economy improvements.

Increased fuel-efficiency requirements.

Increased consumer use of synthetic automotive oil and lower viscosity oil.

Impact of more efficient vehicles as the year progresses both from a fuel economy point-of-view, as well as further movement towards electric vehicle technology.

Continuing workforce downsizing will result in product life extension, improved equipment efficiency and increased equipment downsizing expectations.

How do you think your company’s business will perform in 2015 compared to 2014?
Increase 65%
About the same 32%
Decrease 3%
Based on responses sent to 13,000 TLT readers.

Editor’s Note: Sounding Board is based on an e-mail survey of 13,000 TLT readers. Views expressed are those of the respondents and do not reflect the opinions of the Society of Tribologists and Lubrication Engineers. STLE does not vouch for the technical accuracy of opinions expressed in Sounding Board, nor does inclusion of a comment represent an endorsement of the technology by STLE.